It’s now more than three months since a coronavirus pandemic forced the world into lockdown, stealing away the livelihoods of pubs, restaurants, hotels and visitor attractions everywhere in one cruel stroke.

In the days since, more than 43,000 people in the UK alone have fallen victim to the virus and each one of us has become accustomed to new and more restrictive ways of living and working with each other.

For hospitality and tourism, however, the long wait is over. Most bars, restaurants and hotels can reopen from today (July 3), albeit under a strict new regime.

Service inside bars will now be for seated customers only, with alcohol only available alongside food orders. Drinks can be only be sold without food in an outdoors setting and only if the venue has enough space to properly implement the new one-metre social distancing rule.

The same restrictions will apply to bar and restaurant facilities inside hotels when they re-open to guests on Friday while events, wedding ceremonies, leisure facilities and alcohol-only sales will continue to be curtailed.

Speaking to Licensed & Catering News this week, NI Hotels Federation chief executive, Janice Gault, said that she believed around 70 per cent of Northern Ireland’s hotel sector was prepared to re-open its doors on July 3:

‘Our members are pleased and relieved to be going back to work, but understandably, they are also a little anxious,’ said Janice. ‘We are prepared and we’re ready to rebuild, but the biggest challenge will be to ensure that our customers have a hotel and hospitality experience and not a hospital experience. We want them to feel reassured, but we don’t want them to feel that they are about to be sanitised themselves at any moment.’

Janice acknowledged that many accommodation providers in Northern Ireland had been forced to dip heavily into their reserves over the lockdown period and many of them were now ‘running on empty’. She also said that many operators had taken on additional borrowing in order to get through and that the Federation was working on the assumption that most would spend the next year ‘trading for survival’ before any hope of a return to growth.

In terms of those elements of the hotel sector which remain restricted, Janice is hopeful of ‘some small resolution’, but she remains pessimistic about a speedy return to normal business:

‘Certainly, events are proving to be challenging, particularly where alcohol is involved,’ she said. ‘But we do feel that with time, and if people begin to feel more reassured, there may be an opportunity to bring events back at a certain level.’

And highlighting the wedding market as ‘particularly challenging’, Janice added:

‘We hope to see some movement here soon, but we are concerned that it won’t be enough. The wedding market in NI is going to be challenged by this for a considerable period of time.’

People’s willingness to return to Northern Ireland’s pubs and restaurants will undoubtedly be seen as the litmus test of success for Friday’s re-opening of the hospitality sector.

Speaking on July 1, Hospitality Ulster chief, Colin Neill said that it was difficult to gauge just how many premises would return to trading right away. Some pubs won’t be able to re-open because they don’t offer food, while others don’t have the facilities to properly implement the one-metre distancing rule.

Colin told this magazine:

‘There are also premises that will definitely never re-open and we won’t know which these are until a few weeks in. Regrettably, no matter what we do, there are going to be job losses and closures. At 70 per cent turnover, you start to break even, but if social distancing doesn’t allow that level of trade, then you’re going to see those businesses go broke.’

Colin said that while there was relief across the trade at the prospect of a resumption of business, there was a degree of concern and an acknowledgement of the responsibility that rests with the industry to protect its customers and staff from the virus.

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At present, the scheme – which has provided a vital lifeline to workers and businesses across the UK since lockdown began – has been extended to run until the end of September.

But speaking to this magazine on July 1 – two days before the trade was set to emerge from the coronavirus lockdown – Beannchor’s Bill Wolsey delivered his own stark assessment of the industry’s prospects.

‘If the government drops its furlough scheme and if it keeps the one-metre rule in place until Christmas, then there is going to be a bloodbath in our industry,’ he warned.

Beannchor was one of the first to act as the threat from coronavirus became clear in mid-March, laying off 800 staff and temporarily closing most of its considerable portfolio of hotels and bars. All those premises will be re-opening today in line with the new coronavirus guidelines, but Mr Wolsey, who is known for his candour, is realistic about the chances of success:

‘We don’t think that we’re going to make any money,’ he said. ‘The best that we can hope for is to break even and be able to keep staff working. What we’re going to do is give this two weeks to see how we go. If there isn’t sufficient trade, then we’re going to have to make redundancies.’

Mr Wolsey believes that the very best outcome he can hope for by the end of July is 70 per cent of pre-coronavirus turnover in Beannchor’s bars and 50 per cent in its hotels. In August, however, employers will have to start paying a portion of the furlough scheme’s expenses themselves and Mr Wolsey believes that could be the breaking point for many hospitality businesses:

‘If they expect us to pay people from businesses that are losing money, that won’t work,’ he said. ‘It would be difficult for us and impossible for smaller businesses. You can’t pay five percent, never mind 20 per cent, of something you don’t have.’

The hospitality trade in NI employs around 65,000 people and Mr Wolsey believes that in a worst case scenario, as many as 25 per cent could be made redundant:

‘That’s 16000 people losing their jobs,’ he added. ‘There was a hue and cry recently over job losses at Bombardier, so I can only imagine what it would be like if our industry was to lose up to 16000.’

He does, however, hold out some hope of a brighter future for the trade, providing government support is forthcoming:

‘If the R number stays down and if they allow ‘wet bars’ to open in August, then hopefully we will be back to normal by September,’ he said. ‘And from September to Christmas, I think we will be able to trade at the level we were at before, perhaps even stronger.’

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As of today (March 13), 20 cases of the virus have been confirmed here while 596 people are known to be infected across the UK as a whole.

And while the government continues to adopt a light touch in terms of official intervention aimed at controlling the spread of the disease, organisers of many major events have taken the decision to postpone until later in the year.

One of the biggest casualties in hospitality is IFEX 2020, which was to have taken place in Belfast from March 24 to 26. This event, which is NI’s premier showcase for hospitality and retail, has now been pushed back to November 17 – 19.

Damion Angus, group managing director of organisers, Montgomery Group, told LCN that safeguarding the health of all stakeholders was a priority:

‘ We’ve made this decision in consultation with our major exhibitors and other event partners and believe that postponing IFEX is the responsible decision, taken as a precautionary measure,’ he added.

Another early victim of the pandemic has been Taste of Tourism event, which was to have taken place at the Culloden Estate & Spa at the end of this month. That gathering, which involved workshops and lectures from a variety of high profile, food-related guests, including Michelin-starred chef, Michael Wignall, has not been rescheduled at this stage.

Janice Gault, from organiser, the NI Hotels Federation, said that the decision to postpone the event had been taken ‘regretfully’ following a review of the situation.

St. Patrick’s Day parades are also falling victim to the virus, among them, the big carnival and concert planned for Belfast on March 17, which has been axed.

Reacting to the worsening situation, trade body, Hospitality Ulster, has established an Industry Response Group to monitor and support the sector during the crisis. Chaired by Brian Murphy of BDO NI, the body will include representatives from Tourism NI; industry legal specialists, MTB and others from the hospitality sector.

The Industry Response Group will monitor the financial impact of the developing pandemic and identify those places where practical support is required in order to alleviate any financial or operational pressures that might arise.

The first meeting of this group took place on March 10 when it was agreed to, among other things, to seek the abolition of domestic air passenger duty for NI and a cut in VAT for hospitality businesses. The group is also asking that more time be afforded to businesses in the sector to pay taxes and a shift in the rates calendar from March to June.’

Brian Murphy said:

‘We are bringing forward a range of real and practical measures that could be implemented straight away to ensure that the sector and the economy can weather this current storm, which is worsening by the day. We want to preserve and ensure the ongoing livelihoods of everyone in the hospitality sector.’

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